I've been staring at the NRL table again…

I've been staring at the NRL table again…

Three or four rounds left in the 2026 season, and it's one of the wildest turnarounds I've seen in years. Last year's top four are all sitting in the bottom eight right now. All four of them.

The 2025 story, quickly

Canberra were minor premiers. Genuinely dominant all year. Then got bombed out of the finals early, and Brisbane went on to win the whole thing from fourth spot.

Storm finished second. Bulldogs third. Broncos fourth, premiers.
That's your top four. Most people walked into 2026 expecting something similar to last season in the top spots.

And now

Storm are in the bottom eight. Bulldogs are in the bottom eight. Broncos are near the bottom of the competition, full stop. Canberra, the minor premiers, are down there too.
Four teams. Same competition. One season apart. If you'd shown me this table in March and told me it was 2026, I'd have asked which comp you were talking about.

Up the top

Sharks, Warriors and Panthers were fifth, sixth and seventh last year. Respectable, unspectacular, the sort of teams you forget existed by December.

This year the Warriors are third. The Panthers are second. Sharks have held their spot at fifth, which almost looks like an underachievement next to everyone else's movement.
The Roosters were eighth last year. They're top of the table now.
Some pundits actually called this one, pointing at their soft draw before a ball was even kicked. Nobody believed them. Then the Roosters dropped a few of their opening games and everyone wrote the prediction off.
Turns out the draw doesn't care whether you believe in it or not.

The real story

Everyone remembers who won the wooden spoon last year. Or they think they do.
It wasn't the Dragons. It was Newcastle.
Dead last in 2025. Worst season in the comp.
Right now, they're sixth. Top eight. In the mix for finals footy.
That's a team that's gone from the bottom of the ladder to genuine finals contention in twelve months. In most sports that's the headline of the year. In rugby league we just move on to the next round.
And the Dragons, who finished a fairly ordinary but not catastrophic fifteenth last year, are the ones sitting dead last now. They're the ones on track for this year's wooden spoon.
The two clubs have basically swapped places. Not "same team, still struggling." Opposite directions entirely.

What's actually driving it

Part of this is the rule change I reckon. The tackle-count restart zone moved from the 40 out to the 20 this year, and it's made a real difference. More restarts, longer possession runs, and fatigue biting harder than it used to. Margins have blown out across the comp.
That kind of change favours depth and fitness over experience. Teams running older, settled top-30s feel it late in games. Teams with fresh legs on the bench don't. It's not the whole story, but it's not nothing either.

Rabbitohs and Cowboys, the quiet movers

South Sydney were fourteenth last year. They're seventh now. Nobody's talking about that, because Rabbitohs improving quietly doesn't generate the same headlines as Rabbitohs collapsing loudly, which is what we're all conditioned to expect from them.
The Cowboys were twelfth. They're eighth now. A couple of rough results along the way, but the overall trend is up.
What this actually tells you
Last year's ladder tells you nothing reliable about this year.
Every March, someone writes the same lazy preview. Top four contenders, teams to avoid, this team's ceiling, that team's rebuild year. Half of it is guesswork dressed up as expert insight.
2026 has made a mockery of it. The reigning minor premiers can't buy a finals spot. The wooden spoon team from twelve months ago is playing finals footy. A team that finished eighth is on top of the ladder.
If you want a lesson in not trusting last year's table, this is it, laminated and framed.

Why I love this

This is why I watch the game. Not one dominant team steamrolled from round one to the grand final. Seasons like this one, where the whole table gets turned upside down and nobody saw it coming.
Three or four rounds to go.
The Knights are chasing something real. The Dragons are fighting to avoid a spoon they probably didn't expect twelve months ago. And four teams who were premiership contenders last year are just hoping to salvage some pride before the season ends.
That's footy for you.